Large hail, tornado threat continues to plague Texas

As stalled weather pattern lingers over the Lone Star State and a cold front moves its way across Texas later this week, several cities across the state are slated to see thunderstorms which could become severe storms. Springtime brings some of the most intense weather to Texas historically, and so far this season has lived up to that expectation.

According to the National Weather Service short-range forecast, a pair of low-pressure systems are moving across the central and eastern united states which could bring severe thunderstorms to much of the Central Plains and Middle Missouri Valley. The storms are expected to bring very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes to the regions.

In the Southern Plains, which includes Texas and Oklahoma, another low pressure system is expected to generate another round of storms Wednesday, bringing some potential for severe weather with heavy rains, hail, and damaging winds to the Lone Star State.

“[The Storm Prediction Center] issued another Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms over much of central Kansas and northern Oklahoma while we have a broader Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall extending from northeastern Texas up into eastern Nebraska and much of Iowa,” the National Weather Service forecast reads. “A few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are possible from any severe storms that occur.”

The largest threat for severe storms in South Central Texas comes Wednesday, May 1, although chances remain relatively low with San Antonio and Bexar County sitting at a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms. However, the main threats include large hail and damaging winds – a weather pattern that’s become quite common in South Central Texas this spring.

According to national forecasters, reports of hail increased 10 times during the spring months over the rest of the year, and this is mirrored by the handful of times hail has pummeled the region since spring started. South Central Texas, including San Antonio and Austin, have seen a handful of hail storms in the first month and a half of spring so far.

“An unsettled weather pattern continues through the week with potential for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rains are possible,” a hazardous weather outlook for South Central Texas from the National Weather Service reads.

Currently, there’s a 50% chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and headed into the evening, which dips down to 40% by Thursday morning and afternoon and 20% by Thursday evening. However, rain chances will persist throughout South Central Texas headed into the weekend.

As a low-pressure system sweeps across the Southern Plains Wednesday, the National Weather Service warns cities in the Texas Panhandle, like Amarillo, could see a risk of severe storms that could bring large hail and damaging winds to the region. Currently, the region remains under elevated fire weather conditions as the Texas heat plagues the region, but signs point to the end of the week being quite rainy.

“Thunderstorms may occur Wednesday afternoon and evening in the eastern Panhandles. If storms develop, they may become severe, bringing primarily a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Thursday through Monday all feature a small chance for storms in various parts of the Panhandles. At this time, severe thunderstorms are not anticipated,” a hazardous weather outlook for the region states.

While the National Weather Service warns the Texas Panhandle may see some severe thunderstorms, the seven-day forecast for Amarillo shows mostly sunny skies until Saturday. The forecast shows a 20% chance of thunderstorms Saturday, which increases to 40% by Sunday.

“Wednesday brings yet another chance for severe storms in the eastern Panhandles that may end in no storms developing at all,” the National Weather Service tweeted Tuesday, April 30. “Should storms develop, they may become severe, bringing up to 2-inch diameter hail and 70 mph gusts. While the chance is low, a tornado cannot be ruled out.”

Cities in North Texas were recently hit with several tornadoes, according to the National Weather Service, and that severe weather could pick back up as the week continues. The weather forecaster recorded 10 tornadoes Friday, April 26, and four tornadoes Sunday, April 28, which wreaked havoc on many North Texas towns and the Texas Hill Country.

Now, the National Weather Service is warning more severe storms could be headed to North Texas, namely the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, Wednesday night, May 1, and Thursday. These chances seemingly carry through the weekend, bringing the chance of heavy rain and severe weather systems which could bring large hail and damaging winds.

“The late week and weekend pattern is still looking unsettled with daily storm chances. The best chance for storms will be late Wednesday/Thursday and late Saturday/Sunday. Heavy rain and a few strong/severe storms are possible Wednesday night/Thursday,” the National Weather Service tweeted Tuesday.

The seven-day forecast for the Fort Worth areas shows a mild, 20% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon, but those thunderstorm chances jump significantly as the week comes to a close. By Wednesday night, there’s a 70% chance of thunderstorms which dips to 50% by Thursday night. The rain chances continue through the weekend with a roughly 30% chance Friday and a 30-50% chance Saturday.